The World Economy and Exchange Rates

The inertia of 1990's global economic slowdown will keep 1991's real GDP growth at 1.0 percent - the weighted average of 1.3 percent for the developed economies, 2.6 percent for the developing countries (LDC's), and 4.4 percent for Central Europe and the USSR. World economic growth in 1990-91 is the trough in the business cycle that last peaked in 1988 and which is projected to slope upward starting in 1992. A recovery to 3.3 percent in real GDP growth in 1992 will reflect rebounds in the developed economies of 1.8 percent, 2.7 percent in the LDC's, and 3.9 percent in Central Europe and the USSR.

Inflation is projected to subside substantially in 1991, and by more in 1992. Weaker overall demand, and crude oil prices at or under $20 per barrel, will slow increases in consumer prices, which should eventually lead to real output gains in 1992 for most countries. Significant recoveries in economic activity are expected in North America, Latin America, and the Middle East in 1992. Central Europe and the USSR will remain in recession. Stronger growth in Asia will be driven by a 14-percent nominal gain in export earnings in 1992, a portion of which derives from Japan's increased import demand.

Agricultural commodity prices have trended downward since 1989. Both agricultural raw materials and food have lost 11.2 and 8.8 percent, respectively, of their values from 1989. Current prices for food are only 8 percent higher than in 1985, whereas raw materials prices are still 30 percent higher. Sagging world demand, large crop harvests, and tighter worldwide money have pushed inflation down and dragged agricultural commodity prices down as well. Agricultural export subsidies could potentially increase if GATT negotiations do not succeed, bringing further deterioration in agricultural trade and prices.